OC Reports on Housing by Steven Thomas

September 2020    

Orange County Housing Summary

 

· The active listing inventory decreased by 68 homes in the past two-weeks, down 2%, and now totals 4,252, its lowest level for August since tracking began in 2004. COVID-19 is not suppressing the inventory and in August, there were 11% more homes that came on the market compared to last year. Last year, there were 6,997 homes on the market, 2,745 additional homes, or 65% more.

· Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 17 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 0.5%, and now totals 3,340, its highest level since August 2012. COVID-19 currently has no effect on demand. Last year, there were 2,528 pending sales, 24% fewer than today.

· The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 39 days to 38, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 83 days last year, much slower than today.

· For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 27 days. This range represents 34% of the active inventory and 47% of demand.

· For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 28 days, a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.

· For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 39 days, a hot Seller’s Market.

· For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 52 to 49 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 62 to 58 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 107 to 97 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 193 to 122 days.

· The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 39% of the inventory and only 18% of demand.

· Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.3% of all listings and 0.4% of demand. There are only 5 foreclosures and 8 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 13 total distressed homes on the active market, down 2 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 50 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.

  • There were 3,010 closed residential resales in July, 5% more than July 2019’s 2,871 closed sales. June marked a 39% increase compared to June 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.0% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.2%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
By:  Steven Thomas Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences